Dangerous Tensions at the Yemeni-Saudi Border

5 November 2009
Few reliable, independent reports are coming out on the ongoing war in the Sa'dah region between Yemeni Government forces and the Zaydi Huthists. This is due to a media blackout and because the two ill-matched antagonists issue greatly exaggerated claims of victories and losses. In Yemen the task is further complicated by the mountainous rugged terrain whilst in Saudi Arabia, media workers and humanitarian aid organizations face threats to their own personal safety in reporting from the region.

The same media restrictions apply to military activities concerned with al-Qa'ida's recently established branch, al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula, which is headquartered in Yemen. The reports which got through yesterday of clashes between al-Qa'ida fighters and Saudi security forces, which left a Saudi officer dead, are rare by all standards. What is certain, however, is that al-Qa'ida has decided to escalate its military activities along the Saudi-Yemeni border and carry out operations inside both countries - the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia being its major target.

Abu-Basir Nasir al-Wuhayshi, the field commander of al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula, outlined this agenda in an article posted on one of the militant Islamic websites. He called on al-Qa'ida loyalists to attack Saudi security forces and oil industry installations as well as media workers who support corrupt Arab regimes which have moved into the US orbit. Fewer than two days after this article was published, clashes occurred on the Saudi-Yemeni border, leaving a Saudi officer dead, and Yemeni security officers fought with armed men in Hadramaut in south Yemen.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is currently facing two main dangers: First, the war in Sa'dah and Amran in north Yemen on its southern border and, second, al-Qa'ida's success in establishing a centre in Yemen to recruit and train supporters to send them to carry out attacks against vital targets, particularly oil installations in Saudi Arabia.

The security chaos that Yemen is going through where the Huthists, backed by Iran, are fighting Yemeni forces in the north, whilst the secession movement in the south, Southern Mobility, is backed by the Gulf states, is a suitable environment for the emergence of al-Qa'ida type militant organizations. Saudi Arabia seems to have realized this danger as is evident in its direct or indirect participation in the Sa'dah war alongside the federal Yemeni Government to quickly end the Huthists' rebellion, and in its reinforcement of security measures and the construction of a wall along the border with Yemen.

In the coming months, or possibly years, this dangerous situation will escalate and Yemen will continue to slide into the group of failed states, thanks to the domestic wars and disturbances it is facing. The main difference in the situation between Yemen and Saudi Arabia is that the Saudi Government's plight may eventually be worse, not because of its size and status, but because of its regional role in standing with the Western camp against its enemies, notably Iran. Iran has powerful clout in Iraq, Saudi Arabia's northern neighbour, and in Yemen, its southern neighbour.